|
Do They Really Have an Advantage?
By David E. Schwartz
Lone F's, (front runners in a field without
other front runners) have long been accorded a near-royal
status. Is it justified?
To answer this question, we begin by
defining and benchmarking "F" horses in general. Our
definition of an "F" horse is a horse with 7 or 8
Quirin Early Speed Points. To benchmark these horses, we grabbed
the last thousand races from our database.
(Editor's note: The selected races did not include any maiden
races, nor races for two-year olds.)
 |
|
Early Speed Points - 6-6.5 fur,
fast, 8+ field, Non-Mdn |
| ES
Pts |
Sts |
Pays |
PCT |
$NET |
IV |
PIV |
AvPay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
| 8 |
448 |
75 |
16.7% |
$1.79 |
1.57 |
1.08 |
$10.67 |
4.46 |
3.9 |
| 7 |
731 |
103 |
14.1% |
$1.59 |
1.33 |
1.05 |
$11.30 |
5.29 |
4.3 |
The table above shows that 7 and 8 point
horses really do have a decided advantage over their rivals as
evidenced by the IV column. The PIV column, which measures how
the horse performs relative to the wagering, shows that the
public is very aware of this advantage and bets accordingly.
|
Top Horse: 7,8 Pts; 2nd Horse:
0-4 Pts |
|
Sts |
Pays |
PCT |
$NET |
IV |
PIV |
AvPay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
| 8 |
247 |
55 |
22.3 |
$2.08 |
2.03 |
1.11 |
$9.33 |
3.23 |
2.8 |
| 7 |
448 |
104 |
23.2 |
$2.07 |
2.14 |
1.23 |
$8.91 |
3.48 |
3.2 |
|
695 |
159 |
22.9% |
$2.07 |
2.10 |
1.19 |
$9.06 |
3.39 |
3.1 |
First, it is obvious that the sevens and
eights really do have an advantage. Note that the win
percentages and impact values have risen significantly. In spite
of the fact that the public recognizes the power of this
scenario and lowered the average odds, they still did not wager
enough to prevent these animals from being profitable!
Now for the bad news: The sample above
represents all the races we found (at 6 and 6.5 furlongs) which
qualified over the past 5 years! Notice the strict conditions
for the scenario. The second-ranked horse must not be an
"early presser!" That is, he must have less than 5 ES
points.
|
Top Horse: 7,8 Pts; 2nd Horse:
5-6 Pts |
|
Sts |
Pays |
PCT |
$NET |
IV |
PIV |
Avg
Pay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
| 8 |
331 |
50 |
15.1% |
$1.15 |
1.39 |
0.86 |
$7.64 |
3.84 |
3.4 |
| 7 |
582 |
91 |
15.6% |
$1.70 |
1.45 |
1.04 |
$10.87 |
4.64 |
3.9 |
|
913 |
141 |
15.4% |
$1.50 |
1.43 |
0.97 |
$9.70 |
4.35 |
3.7 |
If we isolate on races where the
second-ranked horse has 5 or 6 points, the scenario shows to be
worthless. In fact, the 8-point horses are now a terrible bet
because the public gives these animals credit for a pace edge
that they really don't have!
Now that we have a bonifide strategy, let's
see how it works in similar scenarios.
|
Top Horse: 7,8 Pts; 2nd Horse:
0-4 Pts |
|
Sts |
Pays |
PCT |
$NET |
IV |
PIV |
Avg
Pay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
| 5.0-5.5f |
23 |
5 |
21.7% |
$1.56 |
1.87 |
1.12 |
$7.17 |
3.17 |
2.9 |
| 6.0-6.5f |
695 |
159 |
22.9% |
$2.07 |
2.10 |
1.19 |
$9.06 |
3.39 |
3.1 |
| 7.0f |
230 |
37 |
16.1% |
$1.39 |
1.47 |
0.98 |
$8.65 |
4.16 |
3.6 |
| 7.5f |
15 |
2 |
13.3% |
$3.19 |
1.23 |
1.00 |
$15.93 |
6.14 |
4.1 |
| 1m |
43 |
12 |
27.9% |
$2.37 |
2.46 |
1.63 |
$8.46 |
4.00 |
3.3 |
| 1m40-1m70 |
24 |
4 |
16.7% |
$1.42 |
1.43 |
1.13 |
$8.66 |
4.74 |
3.8 |
| 1
1/16 |
101 |
16 |
15.8% |
$1.47 |
1.39 |
0.79 |
$12.21 |
3.42 |
3.0 |
| 1
1/8 |
38 |
11 |
28.9% |
$2.15 |
2.53 |
1.59 |
$7.31 |
3.58 |
2.9 |
Summary
The "Lone F" horse is accorded a
much over-rated advantage. Though there is profit to be found,
the scenarios where we can truly take advantage of their running
style are few and far between. |
