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Can you bet against
them?
By Richard B. Valentine
In handicapping maiden races, we are often
faced with the problem of first-time starters. Over the years
many experts have advised us to simply skip races where first
timers are entered.
Should we? Let's take a look.
 |
|
Maiden Races - Status |
|
|
Starts |
Wins |
Win% |
$net |
IV |
PIV |
Avg Pay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
|
Prev |
146,479 |
16,964 |
11.6% |
$1.49 |
1.06 |
0.99 |
$12.88 |
6.25 |
4.9 |
|
Fgn |
191 |
29 |
15.2% |
$2.08 |
1.39 |
0.93 |
$13.70 |
5.97 |
4.4 |
|
FTS |
36,777 |
3,042 |
8.3% |
$1.40 |
0.76 |
0.98 |
$16.99 |
8.54 |
5.5 |
|
total |
183,447 |
20,035 |
10.9% |
$1.47 |
1.00 |
0.99 |
$13.50 |
6.61 |
5.0 |
In this study, comprised of 20,000 maiden
races, we we have broken the starters into three categories:
|
|
| Prev |
Horses
which have started at least once |
| Fgn |
Horses
making their first start in the U.S. |
| FTS |
First
Time Starters |
The first thing we notice is that 3,042 of
the winners, about 15%, were first-time starters. In addition,
the $net (which represents the average return for each $2.00
wagered) is about the same. The win percentage of FTS is lower,
but they make up for it with a higher average mutuel.
What happens if we break the races into
maiden special weights and maiden claiming?
|
|
Maiden Special Weight Races - Status |
|
|
Starts |
Wins |
Win% |
$net |
IV |
PIV |
Avg
Pay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PubCh |
|
Prev |
68,613 |
8,035 |
11.7% |
$1.47 |
1.07 |
1.00 |
$12.59 |
6.20 |
4.9 |
|
Fgn |
152 |
26 |
17.1% |
$2.38 |
1.58 |
1.24 |
$13.93 |
5.12 |
4.2 |
|
FTS |
23,194 |
1,959 |
8.4% |
$1.32 |
0.78 |
0.90 |
$15.61 |
8.04 |
5.4 |
|
Total |
91,959 |
10,020 |
10.9% |
$1.44 |
1.00 |
0.98 |
$13.19 |
6.59 |
5.0 |
In the above table of 10,000 maiden special
weight races, we see a slightly more extreme pattern. Here
almost 20% of the races were won by FTS, but the $net has
dropped to $1.32, a loss of 34% of each wagered dollar! Notice,
also, that the win percentage has hardly changed (from 8.3 to
8.4 percent). And what about the 10,000
maiden claiming races in our sample?
|
|
Maiden Claiming Races - Status |
|
|
Starts |
Wins |
Win% |
$net |
IV |
PIV |
Avg
Pay |
Avg
Odds |
Avg
PC |
|
Prev |
77,866 |
8,929 |
11.5% |
$1.51 |
1.05 |
0.99 |
$13.13 |
6.29 |
4.9 |
|
Fgn |
39 |
3 |
7.7% |
$0.91 |
0.69 |
0.93 |
$11.87 |
9.26 |
5.4 |
|
FTS |
13,583 |
1,083 |
8.0% |
$1.55 |
0.74 |
0.98 |
$19.38 |
9.40 |
5.7 |
|
Total |
91,488 |
10,015 |
10.9% |
$1.51 |
1.00 |
0.99 |
$13.81 |
6.63 |
5.0 |
In the this sample we see that the $net
actually went up slightly, from $1.51 to $1.55.
Summary In
conclusion, we would say that, while first-time starters have an
impact on the races, they are certainly not to be feared. In the
environment where they win most often, maiden special weight
races, they actually have a positive influence on your wallet
because they draw "wasted money" into the pool. |
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